Despite on-going bouts of volatility, equity markets staged a reasonable recovery in April with most markets posting respectable gains for the month. The Australian market has been a laggard over the past year but returned to form by posting a healthy gain of 3.9% to be one of the better performing developed markets. The Royal Commission into banking misconduct subdued returns for the large financial services sector with AMP -19% in particular feeling the brunt. The strong oil price pushed the Energy sector 10.7% higher and a large number of corporate actions including takeover offers for Santos and Healthscope together with a $700m buyback for Scentre Group boosting the local market.
The US market finished only just in the black despite a bumper Q1 earnings led by high profile technology companies such as Facebook, Amazon, Apple and Alphabet (Google). European markets posted strong gains led by Germany up 4.3% as data showed the EU economy still on its recovery path with the ECB maintaining its expansionary monetary settings. The UK market recorded the strongest return of major developed markets recording a stellar +6.4% on positive signs of progress in negotiating trade arrangements with the EU as part of the Brexit negotiations.
A major talking point over the month was the US 10-year bond yield breaching 3% for the first time since October 2014 on rising concerns on the outlook for inflation. The Australian 10-year bond yield followed the US higher rising 17bp to 2.77% with the yield curve steepening as 3-year bonds rose 13bp to 2.18%. Subdued labor market and inflation readings will probably keep the RBA on the sidelines until late in 2019 with the widening interest rate differential with the US placing pressure on the AUD which fell 1.9% against the US but was marginally stronger against the JPY and EUR.