Australian Stock specifics:
Positive Contributors
Aristocrat Leisure (ALL, +19.6% for the quarter) – continued its recent strong run and was a positive contributor to portfolio performance for the quarter. As we discussed in a recent report, the company is now well advanced on its five-year turnaround plan under CEO, Jamie Odell. As part of this turnaround, ALL has invested heavily in product content across its various business divisions. As a direct result of this investment, ALL appears to be gaining market share in the key machine category in the US and Australia, growing its social or ‘app-based’ games at a healthy rate and finally, the acquisition of VGT last year appears to have been integrated seamlessly into the ALL fold. These factors were all evident in the FY15 profit results in November, where ALL delivered a 79% boost in profits versus the prior year, solid cash flow result and a positive outlook statement.
Super Retail Group Ltd (SUL, +28.1% for the quarter) – added value to the portfolio, buoyed by a trading update at the AGM in late October. SUL reported solid sales growth in each of its retail formats: automotive, leisure and sports, together with progress on various internal initiatives such as the restructuring of the ‘Ray’s’ format. SUL’s internal or ‘self-help’ initiatives are a key element in our investment thesis, and hence it’s pleasing to note the progress also being made on various supply chain, IT and warehouse initiatives SUL has been investing in over the last couple of years. These will make the business more efficient, release inventory (and cash in the process) and allow scope for future growth.
CSL Limited (CSL, +18.1% for the quarter) – shares in blood plasma producer, CSL, were the top contributor to performance for the period. Now a $48bn company, CSL has grown strongly over many years, benefiting from ongoing demand growth for its mainstay plasma products. At the same time, CSL has invested heavily in research and development (R&D), for both its mainstay blood plasma products, but also ‘specialty’ products for niche diseases, flu vaccines and more recently cancer treatments – the latter mainly with larger drug company partners. The next two years will, however, bring what CSL is hoping is a step change in new product launches with CSL aiming to release two new ‘recombinant’ or bacterially grown products for treatment of haemophilia and related conditions. These ‘new’ products aim to reduce treatment frequency by increasing drug life in the body and also lowering the complication or reaction rate from continued dosing these patients typically suffer from. Our positive view on these new products has been a key reason behind our large holding in CSL.
Underperformers
Origin Energy (ORG, -11.9% for the quarter) – continued weakness in the oil price weighed on the oil sector with ORG, in turn, weighing on portfolio performance. It has been a torrid year and a half for the energy sector globally with oversupply, geopolitical concerns and modest demand growth contributing to oil price weakness. The oil price has fallen from a peak of US$115 in 2014 to end 2015 in the low US$30’s. Our somewhat contrarian view at this stage is that oil prices will improve over the next couple of years as annual production declines occur across the whole oil industry, together with the US$250bn or more of future projects and associated capital works that have been cancelled in recent times, lead to a reduction in global supply. Although the outlook in the short term remains unclear, on the basis of our medium-term view we have been cautiously buying stocks such as ORG into the weakness. That said, we remain cognisant of the very strained Middle East geopolitical outlook which could prompt more short-term oil pain.
iSelect Limited (ISU, -24.9% for the quarter) – shares in ISU remained under pressure, with investors concerned about recent management turnover. Although an indicative, non-binding bid from Providence Equity Partners (a US private equity firm) remained on the table during the quarter, investors were clearly discounting the probability of a formal bid materialising that would, in turn, be acceptable to investors and the board. This discount was somewhat justified in December when ISU confirmed the bid would not proceed. Providence apparently remains interested, however, were unwilling to commit to a bid price ahead of further due diligence and as such, the board closed the process. Our recent meeting with management highlighted the broad opportunities ISU is pursuing across energy, car insurance, telecommunications, life insurance and mortgages. Should ISU be able to gain a small market share in any of these segments, the upside to ISU profits and share price should be attractive. Although ISU has had a series of management changes since listing, we continue to believe the fundamentals of the business and the medium-term opportunity remain sound. Finally, and on a positive note, ISU has also announced details of up to $50m in capital management initiatives, commencing with a 10% share buyback in December.
QBE Insurance Group (QBE, -2.3% for the quarter) – was weaker during the quarter and detracted from returns. The weakness was driven by commentary at the AGM, with QBE flagging softer premium growth in some of its business lines and insurance margin pressure. Irrespective of the market weaknesses highlighted, we have been impressed by cost efficiencies delivered by QBE in recent years and expect there is more to come. Further, QBE has also made major strides in improving the quality of its capital position and reducing the risk associated with its insurance book. Looking forward, QBE also has material exposure to rising interest rates which, given the likelihood the US Federal Reserve is about to raise short-term rates for the first time in 10 years, and assuming some flow through to longer-dated interest rates – to an extent this has already started – QBE is well placed. Finally, after many years of shrinking the business and focusing internally, QBE management is able to target growth across its businesses by acquiring specialist underwriting teams, something that would be well received by investors.